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photo of a flowing American River taken below the Nimbus Dam

Climate & Hydrology Publications and References


Basin Characterization Model Development


Flint, L.E. and Flint, A.L., 2014, California Basin Characterization Model: A Dataset of Historical and Future Hydrologic Response to Climate Change, U.S. Geological Survey Data Release, doi:10.5066/F76T0JPB

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., and Thorne, J.H., 2014, Evaluating Climate Change Using the Basin Characterization Model: USGS Fact Sheet 2014-3098

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Thorne, J.H., and Boynton, R., 2013, Fine-scale hydrological modeling for climate change applications; using watershed calibrations to assess model performance for landscape projections; Ecological Processes 2:25

Thorne, J.H., Boynton, R., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., and Le, T-N., 2012, Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies. California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2012-010.

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., 2012, Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis: Ecological Processes 2012 1:1. doi:10.1186/2192-1709-1-2

Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2012, Estimation of Stream Temperature in Support of Fish Production Modeling under Future Climates in the Klamath River Basin: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2011-5171, vi, 31 p.

Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2008, Regional analysis of ground-water recharge, in Stonestrom, D.A., Constantz, J., Ferré, T.P.A., and Leake, S.A., eds., Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States: U.S. Geological Survey Professional Paper 1703, p. 29-59.

Flint, A.L., and Flint, L.E., 2008, Integration of regional hydrologic modeling using FORTRAN and ArcGIS, Water Resources IMPACT 10(1) p. 31-35.

Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Hevesi, J.A., and Blainey, J.M., 2004, Fundamental concepts of recharge in the Desert Southwest: a regional modeling perspective, in Groundwater Recharge in a Desert Environment: The Southwestern United States, edited by J.F. Hogan, F.M. Phillips, and B.R. Scanlon, Water Science and Applications Series, vol. 9, AGU, Washington, D.C., 159-184.

Flint, A.L., 2004, Recharge mapping at Yucca Mountain, Nevada — the scale effect; Box 4-2 in Groundwater Fluxes Across Interfaces, National Research Council, National Academies Press, Washington, D.C., p. 50-51.

Hevesi, J.A., Flint, A.L., and Flint, L.E., 2003, Simulation of net infiltration and potential recharge using the distributed-parameter watershed model, INFILv3, of the Death Valley Regional Flow System, Nevada and California: U.S. Geological Survey Water Resources Investigation Report 03-4090.

Basin Characterization Model Applications


Watershed Modeling and Climate Change Threats

Esralew, R., Flint, L.E., Thorne, J.H., Boynton, R., and Flint, A.L., 2015, A framework for effective use of hydroclimate models in climate-change adaptation planning for managed habitats with limited hydrologic response data, Environmental Management DOI 10.1007/s00267-015-0569-y

Byrd, K.B., Flint, L.E., Alvarez, P., Casey, C.F., Sleeter, B.M., Soulard, C.E., Flint, A.L., Sohl, T.L., (2015), Integrated climate and land use change scenarios for California rangeland ecosystem services: wildlife habitat, soil carbon, and water supply. Landscape Ecology, 30(4): 729-750. 10.1007/s10980-015-0159-7

Thorne, J.H., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Boynton, R., 2015, The magnitude and spatial patterns of historical and future hydrologic change in California's watersheds. Ecosphere 6(2):24. http://dx.doi.org/10.1890/ES14-00300.1

Kershner, J.M., editor. 2014. A Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment for Focal Resources of the Sierra Nevada. Version 1.0. EcoAdapt, Bainbridge Island, WA.

Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2012, Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5132, 55 p.

Micheli, L., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Weiss, S.B., and Kennedy, M., 2012, Downscaling future climate scenarios to the watersed scale: a North San Francisco Bay Estuary case study, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, 10(4).

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Curtis, J.A., and Buesch, D.C., 2011, A Preliminary Water Balance Model for the Tigris and Euphrates River System: USGS Open-File Report.

Recharge Modeling

Faunt, C.C., Stamos, C.L., Flint, L.E., Wright, M.T., Burgess, M.K., Sneed, Michelle, Brandt, Justin, Martin, Peter, and Coes, A.L., 2015, Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2015b 5150, 135 p., http://dx.doi.org/10.3133/sir20155150.

Siade, A.J., Nishikawa, R., Martin, P. 2015, Natural recharge estimation and uncertainty analysis of an adjudicated groundwater basin using a regional-scale flow and subsidence model (Antelope Valley, California, USA), Hydrogeology Journal (23) 1267-1291.

Phillips, S.P., Rewis, D.L., and Traum, J.A., 2015, Hydrologic model of the Modesto Region, California, 1960-2004, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2015-5045.

Hanson, R.T., Flint, L.E., Faunt, C.C., Gibbs, D.R., and Schmid W., 2014, Hydrologic models and analysis of water availability in Cuyama Valley, California, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2014-5150.

Hanson, R.T., Schmid, W., Faunt, C.C., Lear, J., and Lockwood, B. 2014, Integrated hydrologic model of Pajaro Valley, Santa Cruz, and Monterey Counties, California, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2014-5111.

Drexler, J.Z., Knifong, D., Tuil, J, Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2013, Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change. J. Hydrol. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2012.11.056

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Stolp, B.J., and Danskin, W.R., 2012, A basin-scale approach for assessing water resources in a semiarid environment: San Diego region, California and Mexico, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1-17.

Hanson, R.T., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Dettinger, M.D., Faunt, C.C., Cayan, D., and Schmid, W., 2012, A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes, Water Resources Research, vol. 48, W00L08,

Flint, A.L. and Flint, L.E., 2012, Recharge, in Martin, P., and Flint, L.E., (eds), Geohydrology of Big Bear Valley, California: Phase 1—Geologic Framework, Recharge, and Preliminary Assessment of the Source and Age of Groundwater, USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5100, 112p.

Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., and Masbruch, M.D., 2011, Appendix 3: Input, Calibration, Uncertainty, and limitation of the basin characterization model, in Conceptual model of the Great Basin Carbonate and alluvial aquifer system, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigation Report 2010-5193, 20 p.

Flint, A.L., and Flint, L.E., 2007, Application of the basin characterization model to estimate in-place recharge and runoff potential in the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system, White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5099, 20 p.

Heilweil, V.M., Brooks, L.E., editors, 2010, Conceptual model of the Great Basin carbonate and alluvial aquifer system, U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2010-5193, 191 p.

Laczniak, R.J., Flint, A.L., Moreo, M.T., Knochenmus, L.A., Lundmark, K.W., Pohll, G., Carroll, R.W.H., Smith, J.L., Welborn, T.L., Heilweil, V.M., Pavelko, M.T., Hershey, R.L., Thomas, J.M., Earman, S., and Lyles, B.F., 2007, Ground-water budgets in Welch, A.H., Bright, D.J., and Knochenmus, L.A. eds., 2007, Water resources of the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system, White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah—A Report to Congress: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5261, p. 43-82.

Blasch, K., Hoffmann, J.P., Bryson, J., Graser, L., Leon, E., and Flint, A., 2006, Hydrogeology of the upper and middle Verde River watersheds, central Arizona: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2005-5198.

Wildfire and Forest Health

Mann, M.L., Batllori, E., Moritz, M.A., Waller, E.K., Berck, P., Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., and Dolfi, E., 2016, Incorporating anthropogenic influences into fire probability models: effects of human activity and climate change on fire activity in California, PLoS ONE 11(4): e0153589. Doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0153589

Millar C.I., Westfall, R.D., Delany, D.L., Flint, A.L.,, and Flint, L.E., 2015, Recruitment patterns and growth of high-elevation pines in response to climatic variability (1883-2013), western Great Basin, USA. Canadian J Forest Res, DOI: 10.1139/cjfr-2015-0025

Anderegg, W.R., Flint, A.L., Huang, C-Y., Flint, L.E., Berry, J.A., Davis, F., Field, C.B., 2015, Tree mortality predicted from drought-induced vascular damage. Nature Geoscience, 8(5), 367-371., DOI: 10.1038/ngeo2400.

Millar C.I., Westfall, R.D., Delany, D.L., Flint, A.L.,, and Flint, L.E., 2015, Recruitment patterns and growth of high-elevation pines in response to climatic variability (1883-2013), western Great Basin, USA. Proceedings of PACLIM 2015.

McIntyre, P.J., Thorne, J.H., Dolanc, C.R., Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Kelly, M., and Ackerly, D.D., 2015, 20th century shifts in forest structure in California: denser forests, smaller trees, and increased dominance of oaks, Proc. Nat. Acad. Sciences, doi/10.1073/pnas.1410186112.

van Mantgem, P.J., Nesmith, J.C.B., Keifer, M.B., Knapp, E.E., Flint, A.L., and Flint, L.E., 2013, Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States, Ecology Letters (doi:10.1 111/ele. 12151)

Das, A., Stephenson, N., Das, T., van Mantgem, P., and Flint, A.L., 2013 Forecasting climate-related tree mortality in energy- versus water- limited forests, PLoS ONE 8(7): e69917. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0069917

Millar, C.I., Westfall, R.D., Delany, D.L., Bokach, M.J., Flint, A.L., Flint L.E., 2012, Forest mortality in high-elevation whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) forests of eastern California, USA: influence of environmental context, bark beetles, climatic water deficit, and warming. Can. J. For. Res. 42: 749b

Climate Modeling


Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., and Thorne, J.H., 2015, Climate change: evaluating your local and regional water resources: U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet 20143098, 6 p., Link

van Mantgem, P.J., Nesmith, J.C.B., Keifer, M.B., Knapp, E.E., Flint, A.L., and Flint, L.E., 2013, Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States; Ecology Letters (doi:10.1 111/ele. 12151) Link

Das, A., Stephenson, N., Das, T., van Mantgem, and Flint, A.L., 2013 Forecasting climate-related tree mortality in energy- versus water- limited forests, PLoS ONE 8(7): e69917. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0069917 Link

Dingman, et al. 2013, Cross-scale modeling of surface temperature and seedling establishment to improve projections of tree distribution shifts under climate change, Ecological Processes Link

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Thorne, J.H., and Boynton, R., 2013, Fine-scale hydrological modeling for climate change applications; using watershed calibrations to assess model performance for landscape projections; Ecological Processes 2:25 Link

Beltran B.J., Franklin, J., Syphard, A.D., Regan, H.M., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., 2013, Effects of Climate Change and Urban Development on the Distribution and Conservation of Vegetation in a Mediterranean Type Ecosystem, International J. Geographical Information Science Link

Drexler, J.Z., Knifong, D., Tuil, J, Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2013, Fens as whole-ecosystem gauges of groundwater recharge under climate change. J. Hydrol. Link

Conlisk, E., Dawson, D., Syphard, A., Franklin, J., Flint, L., Flint, A., Regan, H. 2012, The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change, PLoS ONE. Link

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., 2012, Downscaling future climate scenarios to fine scales for hydrologic and ecological modeling and analysis: Ecol Processes 1:2. Link

Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Stolp, B.J., and Danskin, W.R., 2012, A basin-scale approach for assessing water resources in a semiarid environment: San Diego region, California and Mexico, Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16, 1-17. Link

Conlisk, E., Bauder, E., Syphard, A.D., Franklin, J., Flint, L., Flint, A., Regan, H. Uncertainty in assessing the impacts of global change with spatially dynamic population models, accepted by Global Change Biology Link

Hanson, R.T., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Dettinger, M.D., Faunt, C.C., Cayan, D., and Schmid, W., 2012, A method for physically based model analysis of conjunctive use in response to potential climate changes, Water Resources Research, vol. 48, W00L08, doi:10.1029/2011WR010774 Link

Thorne, J.H., Boynton, R., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., and Le, T-N., 2012, Development and application of downscaled hydroclimatic predictor variables for use in climate vulnerability and assessment studies. California Energy Commission. Publication number: CEC-500-2012-010. Link

Millar, C.I., Westfall, R.D., Delany, D.L., Bokach, M.J., Flint, A.L., Flint L.E., 2012, Forest mortality in high-elevation whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulic) forests of eastern California, USA: influence of environmental context, bark beetles, climatic water deficit, and warming. Can. J. For. Res. 42: 749-765 Link

Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2012, Simulation of climate change in San Francisco Bay Basins, California: Case studies in the Russian River Valley and Santa Cruz Mountains: U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report 2012-5132, 55 p. Link

Flint, L.E. and Flint, A.L., 2012, Downscaling climate change scenarios for ecologic applications, Ecological Processes, 1:1. Link

Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2012, Estimation of Stream Temperature in Support of Fish Production Modeling under Future Climates in the Klamath River Basin: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2011-5171, vi, 31 p. Link

Micheli, L., Flint, L.E., Flint, A.L., Weiss, S.B., and Kennedy, M., 2012, Downscaling future climate scenarios to the watersed scale: a North San Francisco Bay Estuary case study, San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science, 10(4). Link

Franklin, J., Davis, F., Ikegami, M., Syphard, A., Flint, L., Flint, A., Hannah, L., 2012, Modeling plant species distributions under future climates: how fine-scale do climate projections need to be? Global Change Biology doi: 10.1111/gcb.12051. Link

Taylor, K.E., R.J. Stouffer, G.A. Meehl, 2012, An Overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 93, 485-498, doi:10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00094.1 Link.

Regan, H.M., Syphard, A.D., Franklin, J., Swab, R.M., Markovchick, L., Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Zedler, P.H., 2011, Evaluation of assisted colonization strategies underglobal change for a rare, fire-dependent plant: Global Change Biology doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2011.02586.x Link

Daly, C., Halbleib, M., Smith, J.I., Gibson, W.P., Doggett, M.K., Taylor, G.H., Curtis, B.J., Pasteris, P.P., 2008, Physiographically sensitive mapping of climatological temperature and precipitation across the conterminous United States: Int J Climatol 28:2031-2064. Link

Flint, L.E., and Flint, A.L., 2008, Regional analysis of ground-water recharge, in Stonestrom, D.A., Constantz, J., Ferré, T.P.A., and Leake, S.A., eds., Ground-water recharge in the arid and semiarid southwestern United States: US Geological Survey Professional Paper 1703, p. 29-59. Link

Hidalgo, H.G., Dettinger, M.D., Cayan, D.R., 2008, Downscaling with constructed analogues: daily precipitation and temperature fields over the United States: Calif Energy Comm PIER Energy-Related Environ Res. CEC-500-2007-123. Link

Flint, A.L., and Flint, L.E., 2007, Application of the basin characterization model to estimate in-place recharge and runoff potential in the Basin and Range carbonate-rock aquifer system, White Pine County, Nevada, and adjacent areas in Nevada and Utah: USGS Scientific Investigations Report 2007-5099, 20 p. Link

IPCC, 2007, IPCC Fourth Assessment Report: Climate change 2007; synthesis report. Core writing team, Pachauri, R. K. and Reisinger A. (Eds). International Panel on Climate Change, Geneva Switzerland.

Meehl, G.A., Covey, C., Delworth, T., Latif, M., McAvaney, B., Mitchell, J.F.B., Stouffer, R.J., and Taylor, K.E., 2007, The WCRP CMIP3 multi-model dataset: A new era in climate change research: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 88, 1383-1394. Link

NRCS (Natural Resources Conservation Service), 2006, U.S. General Soil Map (SSURGO/STATSGO2): Data, Description.

Flint, A.L., Flint, L.E., Hevesi, J.A., and Blainey, J.M., 2004, Fundamental concepts of recharge in the Desert Southwest: a regional modeling perspective, in Groundwater Recharge in a Desert Environment: The Southwestern United States, edited by J.F. Hogan, F.M. Phillips, and B.R. Scanlon, Water Science and Applications Series, vol. 9, AGU, Washington, D.C., 159-184. Link

Wood, A.W., Leung, L.R., Sridhar, V., and Lettenmaier, D.P., 2004, Hydrologic implications of dynamical and statistical approaches to downscaling climate model outputs: Climatic Change, 62, 189-216. Link

Jennings, C.W., 1977, Geologic map of California. California Division of Mines and Geology geologic data: Map number 2, scale 1:750,000. Link